War Planning and Budget Proposal

[Audio] Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE War Planning and Budget Proposal.

[Audio] -4.8 C - 2 C Temperature during winter month (Dec-Mar) in Ukraine 5.9 million People being displaced In Ukraine Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] . A graph with a red line Description automatically generated.

[Audio] Dec 29, 2022 Russia targeted Ukraine’s power infrastructure Sep 2023 Russia launched the largest missile barrage on Kyiv’s energy plant Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] THIS WINTER WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT Blackout.

[Audio] Current situation analysis. A Brief History of Ukraine | Britannica.

[Audio] A. Change of Military Control - 2022 Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] A. Change of Military Control - recent months Ukraine (from passive to active)​ Ukraine began a massive counteroffensive starting in early June in an attempt to push back Russian forces from the territory it had occupied​. Breaching “Surovikin line” - the first and strongest line of Russian defence on the southern front, near the village of Robotyne. Weakening Russia’s defence around Bakhmut, and securing more land in the region Widening the breach in Russia's defences in the Zaporizhia region.

[Audio] A. Change of Military Control - recent months Ukraine (from passive to active)​ Skriking deep into Crimea, weakening Russian logistics and control of the region which it annexed in 2014 (83rd week of the war)​, killing Russian 34 officers. ​ Depriving Russia of control of the Black Sea, where its fleet is located at, by knocking out the Russian air defence system - the S-400 and their radar positions.

[Audio] Russia (Aiming to threaten economic lifeline) Focus its drone attacks on the Danube ports, aiming to threaten Kyiv's economic lifeline. 65% of Ukraine's grain exports go from the ports of Izmail and Reni, on the Danube. More than 270,000 tonnes of grain has been destroyed Safer to go from Romanian seaports, but Russia's attacks have an added geopolitical dimension - at least one Russian drone has been filmed exploding across the river from Izmail, inside Romania..

[Audio] B. Total casualties Breakdown Casualties Time period Source Civilians 9,701 killed, 17,748 wounded (confirmed minimum, thought higher) 24 February 2022 – 24 September 2023 OHCHR Ukrainian forces (ZSU, NGU, SBGS, PSMOP) ~70,000 killed, 100,000–120,000 wounded 24 February 2022 – 18 August 2023 US estimates Russian forces (VSRF, Rosgvardiya, FSB, FSO, PMCs Wagner, Redut & others, DPR & LPR) ~120,000 killed, 170,000–180,000 wounded 24 February 2022 – 18 August 2023 US estimate 86,000+ killed 243,400+ wounded 24 February 2022 – 29 September 2023 24 February 2022 – 23 June 2023 BBC News Russian estimate 282,280 losses[e] 24 February 2022 – 8 October 2023 Ukrainian government.

[Audio] C. Budgets Finance ministry's budget documents for 2024-2026: Spending under the "national defence" section of Russia's budget will total 10.78 trillion roubles ($109 billion) next year, 29.4% of total planned Ukraine's defense spending next year will reach no less than $46 billion Need $110 billion for budgetary and urgent reconstruction needs, Raising enough funding will be tough.

[Audio] D. The upcoming winter Expect a lull in winter fighting by the Kremlin However, attacks AGAIN the Ukrainian power system Confident in maintaining the momentum of its summer counteroffensive through the winter Drawn lessons from last year to minimize the risk of a full collapse Russia Expect a lull in winter fighting by the Kremlin seasonal rainfall that will muddy the ground and make manoeuvres by tanks and armored fighting vehicles difficult, However, attacks AGAIN the Ukrainian power system have already begun pummeling Ukraine's energy system, in a reprise of its brutal attempt last autumn and winter. launched 43 cruise missiles, slipping through air defenses, and striking energy installations Caused temporary blackouts in parts of central and western Ukraine, including the Kyiv region. Ukraine Confident in maintaining the momentum of its summer counteroffensive through the winter "We continue to work on its development. By winter, [air force] will be even stronger and more effective.' - Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal "The ground will remain frozen and heavy machinery will be able to move on it.' - Ilya Yevlash, spokesperson for Ukrainian troops Drawn lessons from last year to minimize the risk of a full collapse stockpiled coal and gas, and secured guarantees from neighboring countries to supply electricity have been making preparations to strengthen air defense with the Western alliance – e.g, received a $325 million package from the Biden administration.

[Audio] E. Other Factors Isreal-Palestine Conflict Russia is likely to try to use the eruption of violence in Isreal to distract from its operation in Ukraine Western support for Ukraine will decline? / Already tired of the war? Future of American support (Especially amongst Republicans) less favourable to supporting Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes’? May stop or dramatically limit support from the US? Chinese presence as a middleman.

[Audio] Strategic war plan, Budget proposal, Resource allocation Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] Strategic War Plan Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine Russia Military Distribution (Estimated) War Plan Protecting the energy plant Making some breakthrough in regaining Crimea Stormy weather ~20 Russian warships X Donbas region (ideology, civil opposition) 20 warships (stormy weather (which may have diminished the ability of the ship's sensors) (April 13, Ukraine launched two indigenously manufactured Neptune anti-ship missiles that struck the Moskva, resulting in its sinking the following day).

[Audio] Monetary Plan. Monetary Plan. undefined. Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] Official said need 200 jets to match Moscow's air-power, have 50 pilots being trained.

[Audio] Resources Plan 3 x MIM-104 Patriot Surface-to-air missile system For Kyiv, Zaporizhia, Odesa (Against 9K720 Iskander Ballistic Missile) 10 x R-360 “Neptun” Anti-ship missile Deploy in Odesa (Against ~20 Russian warship) 60 x F-16 Fighting Falcon M270 systems and guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS) ammunition Deal with Russia’s advantage in tube and rocket artillery Official said need 200 jets to match Moscow's air-power, have 50 pilots being trained.

[Audio] Our Offer Granting the right to use Port Sevastopol to all NATO members for 100 years 14%  7% Value-added tax of certain agricultural products (products of plant origin, such as corn, soybeans, sunflower seeds, and certain other goods) Might not be a big offer Persuade other allies to regain Sevastopol.

[Audio] Our Export Ukraine: World’s Bread Basket - One of the top agricultural exporters - 50% of world exports in sunflower oil - 18% of world exports in barley - 16% of world exports in maize - 12% of world exports in wheat - 92% of Asian and Africans countries imports in wheat What if being occupied? We need it, although it might not be your responsibility, our loss means your loss as well. Currently we might not be able to provide you other offer,.

[Audio] Further War Expenses and Strategy Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] Predicted War Expense in the Long-Term Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine Defense / Military Strengthen: Priority! Russia preparing for the Long Long Battle – 68% increase in defense budget EU / Germany / Denmark / USA - Assistance 40% of the Ukraine army out of power Possible Variables/Obstacles Re-election of Donald Trump Israel vs. Palestine Public oppositions of the Assisting Nations Solution? Army Training PMC 10.01. 기준 우크라이나 ....

[Audio] Reconstruction is crucial for the Longevity Infrastructure Destruction - $100billion 129,900 houses are destroyed Transportation Destruction - $31billion Reconstruction would cost $185billion (2022) Ukraine Prime Minster: need $750billion! But should be prioritized after the war is over.

[Audio] Exploring New Avenues of Support Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] EU institutions Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine Commitments pledged by EU Institutions: Financial aid: 77.08 billion € Humanitarian aid: 2.14 billion € Military aid : 5.60 billion €.

[Audio] Engage in regular diplomatic dialogue to present interests and concerns Seek for a more sustainable and scalable support from EU states on military support Negotiate with the EU to include defence firms from EU financial assistance and instruments German defence enterprises Rheinmetall, Diehl, and MBDA Germany have already signed contracts with their US counterparts to produce much-needed Patriot air defence missiles and 227mm rockets for Ukraine. EU can facilitate European policymakers, armed forces, and defence industries to learn from German’s experience, and conduct an in-depth overhaul of its financial regulations.

[Audio] Engage in regular diplomatic dialogue to present interests and concerns Take advantage of the EU-initiated cooperation program Offer support by large-scale modernisation programs to replace weapons and vehicles delivered to Ukraine Open joint ventures in Ukraine predominately to repair and maintain weapons and vehicles Incentivise member states to put in investments , such as opening franchises in Ukraine Humanitarian aid.

[Audio] US (potential new government) Engage in public diplomacy efforts to communicate its message to the American public Through social media campaigns, etc. Highlight the importance of a strong and stable Ukraine as a bulwark against Russian aggression To raise awareness and maintain continuous support from the States, especially those who prioritize national interests.

[Audio] International Monetary Fund (IMF) Continue its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement for Ukraine,with appropriate conditions attached. Half for military material assistance Another half for economic recovery maintain public services pay the salaries of civil servants ensure care for the country's displaced people. 國際貨幣基金組織- 維基百科，自由的百科全書.

[Audio] Negotiation consideration Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] Several rounds over the Peace Negotiation in the Russian Invasion to Ukraine 22 July 2022 Signed Black sea Grain Imitative 23 July 2022 Russia fired missiles to Odesa, where our grains grow NOT IMMEDIATE PLAN.

[Audio] Prospect of negotiation Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine Poor performance of Russian military Western economic sanction Chinese presence as a middleman.

[Audio] OUR APPROACH - Neutral country Avoiding entering NATO - Return all military aids to donors after the invasionc CONDITION - Respect the Ukrainian territory and sovereignty (which includes Crimea and Donbas region) - Apologies from Russia AND Belarus - Provide humanitarian aid to our people Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine.

[Audio] Офіс Президента України Office of the President of Ukraine Слава Україні! Glory to Ukraine!.