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Lockdown Extensions Loom WHO Lowers Estimates of Immunity Arbiterz.

Background. Having run pilots on various methodologies (Online and RDD CATI), we decided to add another pilot on Panel-Based CATI Our CATI Panel comprises close to 200,000 contacts across our most important markets; Nigeria accounting for 92,500 panellists and Kenya for 52,000 We set out to demonstrate that Panel-Based CATI: Is not only suited for quota-based commercial projects, but meets the demands for random sampling in countries without fixed line networks; i.e. eliminates geographic skews Provides a greater proportion of valid numbers than purchased samples Is an important tool in carrying out mixed-mode studies (Online, RDD), by helping to balance skewed demographics in a more cost-effective manner.

Methodology. The questionnaire was scripted in Dooblo. In addition to English, there as a Swahili version in Kenya; and a Hausa version in Nigeria Our partners in South Africa, Ask Afrika , graciously hosted the scripts on their server.* Per country, 5,000 phone numbers were provided; calls were made using mobile lines; interviews were conducted in-office and @home Our Safety Protocols were strictly enforced Briefing Date: 5 th August, 2020 Field Dates: 5 th – 9 th August, 2020 Respondents: Kenyans/Nigerians, aged 18+ Total Achievement: Kenya (503); Nigeria (500) Margin of Error: ±4.4% (at 95% Confidence) * the same survey questions were run concurrently in South Africa.

Sample Draw. All numbers belonging to potential respondents above the age of 18 were filtered out of the country’s database Sample was assigned proportionately to population of States or Counties (by Census results) Within each State/County, the sample was split between urban and rural areas Within each resulting cell, sample was divided evenly by gender The ratio between available contacts and required sample per cell determined the sampling gap (n) Although the sample consisted of mobile phone numbers, the sample reproduced the advantages of a fixed line sample in terms of a predictable geographic spread.

Respondent Selection. Unlike in a fixed line sample, mobile phones may be anywhere; Kish Grid selection of respondents is, at best, impractical Therefore, the person answering the call was the designated respondent, provided he/she was 18 years or above and a Kenyan/Nigerian citizen To contain the extent of demographic skews, completed quota groups were successively closed in the Dooblo script Passive controls were the only measures implemented; no targeted calls were made However, it was necessary to weight the Kenyan data by educational achievement.

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Most Urgent Problems Facing the Country (Base: Total Samples).

Summary: Problems Facing The Country. For Kenyans, the Covid-19 pandemic has become the main problem affecting the country (61%); in stark contrast, Covid-19 is seen as a minor issue (25%) by Nigerians, coming in sixth position Both Kenyans and Nigerians agree on Unemployment: it is the main Issue among Nigerians (55%); and the second-most important problem for Kenyans (43%) Corruption (39%) is the second-most important problem; only 12% of Kenyans perceive corruption as a major problem Poverty and Food Insecurity are seen as important problems in both countries.

Concern About Covid-19 (Base: Total Samples). Kenyans are significantly more worried about contracting Covid-19 than Nigerians (significant at 99%) 80% of Kenyans, vis-à-vis 35% of Nigerians, are concerned about Covid-19.

Concern about Covid-19 (by demographics).

Concern about Covid-19 (by demographics).

Effectiveness of Containment Measures (Base: Total Samples).

Effectiveness of Containment Measures (by demographics).

Effectiveness of Containment Measures (by demographics).

Experience With Covid-19 (by demographics). Know 5meone Who Contracted Covid-19 • Know %meone Who Died of Covid-19.

Personal Protective Measures (Base: Total Samples).

Summary: Adherence to Safety Measures. Although 9% of Kenyans and 8% of Nigerians have knowledge of Covid-19 infections among their circle of acquaintances; and 5% of Kenyans and 4% of Nigerians know of someone who succumbed to the disease, adherence to the three most common safety measures is not universal: While 95% of Nigerians claim to be wearing face masks, just 73% of Kenyans do 91% of Kenyans claim to be observing social distancing rules; just 71% of Nigerians do Both Kenyans and Nigerians (98% each), however, agree on the use of hand sanitisers With the exception of using hand sanitisers, few Nigerians would stick to observing protective measures, once the immediate crisis has passed More Kenyans claim they will maintain social distancing rules and the wearing of masks in a “new normal” environment.

Personal Protective Measures ( Kenya ): Current vs. “New Normal”.

Personal Protective Measures ( Nigeria ): Current vs. “New Normal”.

Interest In A Contact Tracing App (Base: Total Samples).

Impact on Medical Care & Supplies (Total Samples).

Summary: Access To Health Care. The Covid-19 pandemic and its concomitant restrictions (e.g. lockdowns) have curtailed access to essential medicines and vaccinations for those who require them: 66% of Nigerians and 47% of Kenyans could not get medicines for the treatment of endemic malaria or the seasonal flu during the month prior to the interview Similar proportions (63% in Nigeria; 47% in Kenya) could not obtain vaccinations for their children Although greater proportions among Kenyans and Nigerians do not require them, access to treatments for chronic conditions, such as diabetes, was limited By the same token, essential drug regimens for the treatment of HIV or TB could not be maintained; Nigerians were affected much more seriously than Kenyans.

Current Economic Self-Assessment (Base: Total Samples).

Summary: Economic Impact. While 43% of Nigerians describe their economic situation as being average, 44% of Kenyans complain of being far below average The proportion of slightly or far above average comes in at 24% in Nigeria against a mere 10% in Kenya Regardless of their self-assessment of financial well-being, both Kenyans (Net Score: -78%) and Nigerians (Net Score: -81%) have been hit hard by the financial impact of Covid-19 The negative effects cut across all demographic breakdowns in both countries; differences are just a matter of degree.

Impact of Covid-19 on Household Income (Net Scores: % INCREASED minus % DECREASED ).

Nigeria to impose precision lockdown in coronavirus hotspots task force head Reuters.

Achieved Sample vs. 2019 Census.

Achieved Sample vs. 2006 Census.

Urbanisation & Gender vs. Census. The proportion of urban and rural locations (also within Counties / States) and the distribution by gender were rather spot-on in both countries.

Age Distributions vs. Census. *Panel CATI 13.9 10.3 *Census 2019 - Relative (%) 7.0.

Educational Achievement vs. Census. No Formal Education Panel CATI 2019 Census Panel CATI 2006 Census 3.2 9.8000000000000007 31.6 36 Primary Panel CATI 2019 Census Panel CATI 2006 Census 25.8 55.1 9.6 11.1 Secondary Panel CATI 2019 Census Panel CATI 2006 Census 40.200000000000003 24.5 39.800000000000011 37.700000000000003 Vocational Panel CATI 2019 Census Panel CATI 2006 Census 5.8 7.5 5 1 Tertiary Panel CATI 2019 Census Panel CATI 2006 Census 25 3.5 14 14.2.

Summary. Delays or errors in passive quota control resulted in some over-achievement among younger respondents in Kenya; and a shortfall of 45 to 49 year olds in Nigeria A similar oversight in blocking cells resulted in educational achievements in the Kenyan sample to resemble an Online or RDD sample; there is a pronounced skew toward secondary and tertiary education Quota controls implemented by the team in Lagos were more effective on this parameter A certain learning curve, however, was not unexpected in a pilot study This, however, made it necessary to weight the Kenyan data set by educational achievement.

Call Dispositions. abstract.

Productivity Comparison.

Uses for Panel-Based CATI. As of August 11 th 2020.

Downloads & Videos. Pilot Study 11: Multi-Country Online Poll in Africa E SOMARÄ _ AMRA.

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