Rising Threat: Mortar Attacks in Mogadishu

Rising Threat: Mortar Attacks in Mogadishu. Comprehensive Analysis | November 2024 – April 2025 Prepared by: Abdikani ADAM Date: April 2025.

Contents. Introduction Purpose of the Report Timeline of Major Attacks Motivations Behind Attacks Key Contextual Events Impact on Mogadishu.

Introduction. This report examines the recent increase in mortar attacks in Mogadishu from November 2024 to April 2025. During this period, Al-Shabaab carried out multiple attacks on both secure facilities and civilian areas, demonstrating their growing ability to threaten stability. Key targets included Aden Adde International Airport, the Halane compound, and residential neighborhoods like Warta Nabada and Boondheere. These attacks highlight the group's continued efforts to undermine government operations, international missions, and daily life in the city..

Purpose of the Report. The purpose of this report is to help security officials, policymakers, and international partners better understand the nature of the threat and provide practical suggestions to reduce the risk of similar incidents in the future..

Timeline of Major Attacks. According to reliable information, mortar attacks were reported in Mogadishu on five separate occasions between November 3, 2024, and April 6, 2025. And there are..

Some Illustrations. Targeted Location. Finger Mogadishu Airport Villa Somalia Area Total 4 1 5.

Motivations Behind Attacks. The recent mortar attacks stem from rising political tensions and Al-Shabaab’s ongoing terrorist activity, shaped by both domestic and international politics. Goals of the Attacks Undermine government stability Disrupt international cooperation Gain propaganda advantage Instill fear during key political moments.

Key Contextual Events. To understand the recent mortar attacks in Mogadishu, it's crucial to examine key events leading up to them—particularly the attacks on November 3, 2024, and April 5, 2025. These will be analyzed within the broader political and security context, starting with developments in October 2024, which are closely tied to the November incident. UN Transition: UNSOM → UNTMIS (Nov 2024) Tensions with Ethiopia over sovereignty Arrival of Turkish drones (March 2025) Leadership changes in Somali security forces.

Impact on Mogadishu. Between November 3, 2024, and April 6, 2025, mortar attacks targeted Villa Somalia and Mogadishu Airport, causing both physical and psychological impacts such as Civilian injuries and infrastructure damage Disruption of airport and humanitarian operations Psychological trauma and heightened public fear.

Security Response. According to information from Open sources NISA Operations: Mortar launch sites seized in Garasbaaley district. Detentions & Investigations: Arrests made following the February 27 incident; investigations ongoing. International Support: Turkey deployed Drones, the U.S. offered intel support, and Ethiopian forces conducted airstrikes targeting militant positions..

Threat Outlook (Apr–Jun 2025). The risk of future IDF attacks may be influenced by several key factors, grouped into three main categories: Regional Security Developments International Engagement and High-Level Visits National Political Climate.

Risk Drivers - preventative security measures. Description that to be concerned Ranking of likelihood security measure. Changes in troop deployments related to the AU/ATMIS mission Elevate Regional cooperation agreements or joint security exercises Developments in Somalia’s diplomatic or defense relationships with countries Regional summit or multilateral meeting Moderate elevate Deployment of specialized foreign security personnel Federal Member State (FMS)–Federal Government (FGS) meetings Moderate Public consultations or parliamentary sessions Changes in leadership or ministerial reshuffles.

Risk Drivers - preventative security measures. ANTICIPATED THREAT PERIODS AND LOCATIONS Months Expected Risk Level Potential Focus Areas April Elevate Airport zone, Villa Somalia, key hotels May Moderate Elevate Government meeting areas, Halane compound June Moderate Public gathering points, diplomatic zones.

Key Contributing Factors. According to our assistant here soma key factors can distrusting rising IDF attack to Mogadishu and there are Mortar use in unmonitored outskirts Limited surveillance and response tools Mogadishu as a symbolic target Challenging Urban Environment Insider Risks and Information Leaks Community Awareness Gaps.

Recommendations. Deploy drone-based surveillance Install acoustic detection systems Establish rapid response units Enhance community engagement Regulate urban development.

Conclusion. This report analyzes the surge in mortar attacks in Mogadishu (Nov 2024–Apr 2025), revealing Al-Shabaab's escalating threat to both secure sites (Aden Adde Airport, Halane compound) and civilian areas (Warta Nabada, Boondheere). Attacks often coincided with political events, like Ethiopia's PM visit, signaling intent to disrupt governance. The April 5–6 strikes marked a dangerous shift toward civilian targeting. Key risks include political transitions and regional tensions. To counter future threats, Somalia should: Strengthen intelligence and rapid-response systems. Enhance cooperation with international partners. Foster inclusive politics to address grievances..

Additional note and apologize. "As a proud Somali citizen, I am deeply devoted to my country's development and firmly stand against terrorist organizations. This commitment led me to conduct this important research. English is not my native language, so I sincerely apologize if any wording could be better expressed. While I'm still improving my language skills, my loyalty to Somalia's sovereignty is absolute and unwavering.".

Contact. Abdikani ADAM Email: October02@proton.me.