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1. alpha Teta 020 8152 5120 About Our Approach Our Prcpsition Library Blog Podcast Adviser Login Contact A Andrew T. DYNAMIC ASSET Enhanced customer outcomes Genuine value.
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The Great N ormalisation. 2. The Great Normalisation.
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Correlations Underpin P ortfolio C onstruction. 3.
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Correlations And A sset C lass R eturns Year-to-Date.
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Annus Horribilis F or 60/40 Investors. 5. Alpha Beta AB4 Core vs Vanguard LifeStrategy 60% Equity (YTD) Time period: 01/01/2022 to 30/09/2022 -12.0% -14.0% 01/2022 Alpha Beta AB4 Core 02/2022 03/2022 04/2022 -10.3% 05/2022 06/2022 07/2022 LifeStrategy Equity A ACC Alpha Beta AB4 Core vs Vanguard LifeStrategy 60% Equity (I-year) Time Period: 01/10/2021 to 30/09/2022 -10.0% 10/2021 — Alpha Beta AB4 Core Direct 11/2021 12/2021 01/2022 02/2022 04/2022 05/2022 06/2022 08/2022 08/2022 03/2022 -7.1% 07/2022 LifeStrategy Equity A Acc 09/2022 -13.3% 09/2022 -10.3%.
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Risk Free A ssets B ecome V olatile L ike Crypto C urrency.
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Equities And B onds M ove I n S ync ’. 7. Source: extracted from Bloomberg October 2022.
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The Dollar H as I ts B est Y ear I n H istory. 8.
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Are We A t T he B ottom Y et?. Price To Earnings Ratio At Prior Bear Market Bottoms 17.6 18x 16x 12x IOX 7.2 15.5 13.3 14.1 14.2 13.7 12.3 12.6 11.2 11.7 6.8 7.2 5.7.
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Signposts To F uture R ates. 10. The Fed's New Dot Plot source: Federat Reeve Projection Year End • • '*tot Bloomberg.
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Signposts To F uture R ates. 11. MEETING PROBABILITIES MEETING DATE 02/11/2022 14/1212022 01/0212023 22/03/2023 03/05/2023 14/EQ023 26/0712023 20/0912023 01/11/2023 13/12/2023 325-350 350-375 31.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 2.6% 375-400 400-425 425-450 450-475 475-500 688% 0.0% 1.9% 100% 332% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 10.8% 16.4% 24.0% 654% 322% 18 F/- 168% 24+6 298% 318% 31.8% 500-525 1.0% 644% 496% 47.0% 453% 427% 378% 318% 228% 2.1% 30.6% 32.2% 29.0% 24.8% 18.3% 13.4% 7.5%.
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Keeping at it like Volcker. 12. IN THE QUEST SOUND MONEY GOOD GOVERNMENT PAUL A. VOLCKER CHRIS t 'NC.
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The Fed’ might break something?. 13. Image. Image.
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Real Rates M ust G o P ositive T o F ix T he I nflation P roblem.
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Should I Stay O r S hould I Go ?. 15. See the source image.
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Peaking inflation ... But T akes L onger T han Y ou Think.
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When Bad N ews … Is G ood N ews !. 17. Image. Source Macro Compass October 2022.
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Energy and Geopolitical R isks. 18. Image. Image result for 2022 russian invasion of ukraine.
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Still not super cheap. Looks fair value on PE but Shiller structurally higher..
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Next Moves ?. 20. Image. Source: Macro Compass October 2022.
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Longer Run US Equity. 21. E 500, United States, D, NYSE (CED) - 03652.35 H 3684.60 L3652.35 C3673.15 2018 Market C losed 5200.00 sooooo 480000 4600.00 4400.00 4000.00 3800.00 3673 15 3600 oo 340000 3200.00 3000.00 2600.00 2400.00 220000 2000.00 1800.00 1600.00 1200.00 2019.
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Portfolio actions taken. 22.
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Key Takeaway P oints. Email: at@alphabetapartners.co.uk Web : www.alphabetapartners.co.uk.
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Important Notice. This is a marketing communication from Alpha Beta Partners which is a trading name of AB Investment Solutions Limited who are authorised and regulated by Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Retail clients should not rely on any of the information provided in this document and should seek assistance from a Financial Adviser for all investment guidance and advice. This material is directed only at persons in the UK and is not an offer or invitation to buy or sell securities. Opinions expressed, whether in general, on the performance of individual securities or in a wider context, represent the views of Alpha Beta Partners at the time of preparation. They are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Further information is available on request, or on our website, www.alphabetapartners.co.uk.