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COVID-19  CRISIS, CONSEQUENCES AND RECOVERY FACTORS 		 ll m ārs  Rimšēvičs , Latvia 		 Istanbul / Turkey 	 	September  11-12 ,   2021

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Mother of all Crises Crisis required immediate action Governments fiscal response Effectiveness of the measures Challenges  ahead

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COVID -19  crisis required immediate action

Introducing mitigation measures Reorganizing hospital work Providing financial support

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Macroeconomic factors 
(sovereign debt levels,
Deficit levels) Investment Rating of the Country (Investment vs Junk) Quality of the Governance Size of the Tourism Sector Available Resources ( Monetary and Fiscal)

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“Decision making is the goal-oriented and information-processing-based choice of the desired solution from a more or less identical set of alternatives”. 	 	 				  source : Hans-Christian Pfohl, 1977

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Stringency of  the  measures (Stringency   Index) Constrain ts  of Mobility  (Mobility Index)

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Italy Ireland United Kingdom USA Spain Portugal Greece Cyprus Canada France Australia Germany Romania Netherlands Belgium Hungary Austria Poland South Korea Slovenia Slovakia Denmark Czechia Lithuania Switzerland Luxembourg Latvia Sweden Norway Bulgaria Croatia Iceland Finland Japan New Zealand Estonia 66.935653409090932 66.560738636363396 65.687869318181853 64.51210227272675 64.316079545454414 64.225767045454631 62.609602272727187 62.374602272727081 62.217812499999951 61.754886363636366 60.91463068181838 60.685426136363887 58.572613636363478 58.116619318181662 57.42420454545433 56.377613636363712 55.564346590909174 55.337499999999864 54.658551136363762 54.26048295454536 52.991903409091037 52.975937499999944 52.208323863636316 51.675198863636346 50.8536647727271 49.134119318181817 49.070909090909183 47.650482954545488 46.609431818182081 46.528153409090926 44.452159090909078 43.928125000000179 43.15519886363613 38.577272727272643 37.782585227272541 36.643920454545274

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United Kingdom Ireland Spain Italy Portugal Canada Luxembourg Belgium Austria Slovenia France Netherlands Slovakia USA Romania Switzerland Finland Germany Australia Poland Greece New Zealand Lithuania Croatia Hungary Sweden Czechia Norway Denmark Bulgaria Latvia Japan Estonia South Korea 30.675999999999995 27.818857142857144 25.80114285714286 25.350857142857144 24.874285714285712 24.05714285714286 24.016571428571428 23.60285714285714 23.150857142857141 23.116 22.886285714285712 21.10857142857143 19.813142857142857 19.094285714285714 18.212 17.914285714285711 17.205142857142857 17.091999999999999 16.666285714285713 16.446857142857144 16.322285714285712 16.074285714285715 15.818857142857144 15.573142857142859 14.952000000000002 14.864000000000001 14.621714285714287 14.508571428571429 14.489142857142857 13.917142857142858 12.46 12.428000000000001 11.017142857142856 6.2857142857142856

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23.60285714285714 13.917142857142858 14.621714285714287 14.489142857142857 17.091999999999999 11.017142857142856 27.818857142857144 16.322285714285712 25.80114285714286 22.886285714285712 15.573142857142859 25.350857142857144 12.46 15.818857142857144 24.016571428571428 14.952000000000002 21.10857142857143 23.150857142857141 16.446857142857144 24.874285714285712 18.212 23.116 19.813142857142857 17.205142857142857 14.864000000000001 30.675999999999995 19.094285714285714 14.508571428571429 17.914285714285711 12.428000000000001 16.666285714285713 16.074285714285715 6.2857142857142856 24.05714285714286 -6.4243842823704966 -4.1537063249065511 -5.5555555555555571 -3.2879126370350491 -4.8965478643460614 -2.9323490257775688 -8.2477152162783227 -10.963079482263424 -8.1149069917345003 -8.367361692986961 -8.8711463476679171 -3.6235355602978956 -0.82266319309721325 -1.313255361290615 -4.9624816538997862 -3.7691038115269322 -6.5904047261764305 -2.701711018372734 -7.5875266576749709 -3.8569609252560468 -5.5321932323167573 -5.1880283001720926 -2.8930899608865701 -2.8178195724253641 -9.9 -3.5 -0.8 -2.9 -4.8 -1.1000000000000001 -2.9 -1.1000000000000001 -5.4 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR SP FR CR IT LV LT LU HU NL AT PL PT RO SL SK FI SE UK US NO CH JP AU NZ KR CA

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-6.4244206336161938 -3.8440181972275553 -5.5555555555555571 -3.2870606806258564 -4.9032589393442549 -2.9327524305135313 2.4751519969125297 -8.2475518229251747 -10.963920409811067 -8.2317523171745961 -9.0000312067656267 -8.8711289637504791 -5.1035502958579997 -3.6221101150509867 -0.82220887800822595 -1.3138910797760701 -4.9624816538997862 -3.7961040611825609 -6.5905099010033297 -2.7234348082513264 -7.5873593158696622 -3.8999704686974042 -5.532170775706561 -5.2002692696061814 -2.8931025341266121 -2.817815418433554 -9.4 -3.4 -6.2 -1.1000000000000001 -4.2 -4.9000000000000004 -5 -9.6999999999999993 -11 -9.1999999999999993 -7.4 -9.5 -5.7 -4.5 -7.4 -4.0999999999999996 -8.1 -4.3 -8.9 -7 -5.7 -9.1999999999999993 -8.4 -6.2 -5.4 -3.1 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR SP FR CR IT CY LV LT LU HU NL AT PL PT RO SL SK FI SE

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GDP growth rate in 2020, % 7.2204845013748731 4.3861065138416224 5.44423346092535 1.7728572264249522 11.03370544006278 3.4900150960272138 11.028872427123924 4.129848567413041 7.7103009294197555 2.5940223181066031 6.8248555163513647 6.3795011234588692 7.9280656230670878 4.6807143933504589 4.1587270560864775 4 6.5711467205103151 4.5192778176981978 8.5545887757554304 7.6769895099565364 4.7257657605524459 2.2661937174174835 5.3460563319061984 3.795231345008085 2.9740073275675076 4.2006968782557186 4.2369754101110404 5.2882597816353591 -6.4243842823704966 -4.1537063249065511 -5.5555555555555571 -3.2879126370350491 -4.8965478643460614 -2.9323490257775688 -8.2477152162783227 -10.963079482263424 -8.1149069917345003 -8.367361692986961 -8.8711463476679171 -5.1055794782047883 -3.6235355602978956 -0.82266319309721325 -1.313255361290615 -4.9624816538997862 -7.0007286587074731 -3.7691038115269322 -6.5904047261764305 -2.701711018372734 -7.5875266576749709 -3.8569609252560468 -5.5321932323167573 -5.1880283001720926 -2.8930899608865701 -2.8178195724253641 -0.76247753542294561 -2.8702514876963789

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114.99 23.791 37.57 43.42 68.926000000000002 18.498000000000001 213.101 117.083 113.461 87.206999999999994 155.56200000000001 118.20099999999999 45.48 46.98 25.545999999999999 81.194999999999993 55.43 53.970999999999997 85.224000000000004 57.688000000000002 131.62799999999999 50.104999999999997 81.451999999999998 60.661000000000001 67.097999999999999 38.488999999999997 -6.4240000000000004 -3.8439999999999999 -5.556 -3.2869999999999999 -4.9029999999999996 -2.9319999999999999 -8.2479999999999993 -10.964 -8.2319999999999993 -9 -8.8710000000000004 -5.1059999999999999 -3.6240000000000001 -0.82299999999999995 -1.3140000000000001 -4.9619999999999997 -7.0010000000000003 -3.7959999999999998 -6.59 -2.7229999999999999 -7.5869999999999997 -3.9 -5.532 -5.2 -2.8929999999999998 -2.8180000000000001 BE BL Czech RP DK DE EE GR SP FR CR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PO PT RO SL SK FI SE

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GDP growth rate in 2020, % 79.807693481000001 85.576919556000007 73.076919556000007 55.769229889000002 90.865386963000006 75.480766295999999 75 74.038459778000004 92.307693481000001 92.307693481000001 90.865386963000006 53.365383147999999 55.769229889000002 89.903846740999995 75 -8.1149069917345003 -4.8965478643460614 -10.963079482263424 -8.8711463476679171 -2.8178195724253641 -2.9323490257775688 -3.6235355602978956 -0.82266319309721325 -3.2879126370350491 -2.8930899608865701 -0.76247753542294561 -8.2477152162783227 -8.367361692986961 -3.7691038115269322 -7.5875266576749709 FR DE SP IT SE EE LV LT DK FI NO GR CR NL PT

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Speed 	 Clarity and Availability 	of resources Size of Support

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Uncertainty of the COVID-19 crisis is huge

How long will the pandemic last? How much financial support will be available? Will all debts have to be repaid? How long will central banks continue to print? Will inflation come into the life?

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https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/servlet/homePageChart?from=static&

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1)  Will  it be possible to refinance outstanding  debts? 	2)   At  what  price? 	 3)  Is  the price payable in the long run?

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Crises always  surprise uninvited The COVID-19 crisis is a crisis of crises  (Mother of all Crises) Response has to be holistic   Financial and economic systems must be in good shape Basic principles of crisis management must be observed

Covid-19 economic recession and the way back to the Old Normal

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