Disaster Management

Disaster Management. And Climate Change.

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference , COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in Paris , France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties (CMP) to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol . [1] The conference negotiated the Paris Agreement , a global agreement on the reduction of climate change , the text of which represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties attending it. [2] The agreement will enter into force when joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions. [3][4][5] On 22 April 2016 (Earth Day), 174 countries signed the agreement in New York, [6] and began adopting it within their own legal systems (through ratification , acceptance, approval, or accession). According to the organizing committee at the outset of the talks, [7] the expected key result was an agreement to set a goal of limiting global warming to "well below 2 °C" Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The agreement calls for zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to be reached during the second half of the 21st century. In the adopted version of the Paris Agreement, [3] the parties will also "pursue efforts to" limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. [2] The 1.5 °C goal will require zero emissions sometime between 2030 and 2050, according to some scientists. [2] Prior to the conference, 146 national climate panels publicly presented draft national climate contributions (called " Intended Nationally Determined Contributions ", INDCs). These suggested commitments were estimated to limit global warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. [8] For example, the EU suggested INDC is a commitment to a 40 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. [9] The agreement establishes a "global stocktake " which revisits the national goals to "update and enhance" them every five years beginning 2023. [3] However, no detailed timetable or country-specific goals for emissions were incorporated into the Paris Agreement – as opposed to the previous Kyoto Protocol . A number of meetings took place in preparation for COP21, including the Bonn Climate Change Conference, 19 to 23 October 2015, which produced a draft agreement. [10] The overarching goal of the Convention is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase. Since COP 17 this increase is set at 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels. [16] However, Christiana Figueres acknowledged in the closing briefing at the 2012 Doha conference : "The current pledges under the second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol are clearly not enough to guarantee that the temperature will stay below 2 °C and there is an ever increasing gap between the action of countries and what the science tells us.".

Interrelationship. There is close relationship of Occurrence of Disasters and Climate change. But let us first understand what is climate change. Climate you may call a pattern of seasons. the average course or condition of the weather at a place usually over a period of years as exhibited by temperature, wind velocity, and precipitation..

Rotation of The Earth and Day length. Daylength.

Climate Zones of Earth. Climate zones are areas with distinct climates, which occur in east-west direction around the Earth and can be classified using different climatic parameters. Generally, climate zones are belt-shaped and circular around the Poles (see picture on the right). In some areas, climate zones can be interrupted by mountains or oceans. , whilst at the poles the angle of the Sun is lower or even under the horizon during the Polar Night. Throughout the sesons , the position of the Sun to the Earth and thus the angle of incidence of the sunlight also change. The angle of the Sun at noon varies from perpendicular (90°) within the tropics up to horizontal (0° = Sun does not or only partially appear on the horizon) within the polar circle. Thus, the sunlight warms up the Earth around the equator much more strongly than at the poles. Due to temperature differences caused by the differences in radiation, recurring climatic conditions develop, such as winter and summer. These conditions are characterised by a certain amount of precipitation in summer or a certain average air temperature. Different climatic conditions, which arise regularly in certain areas, are summarized and described in the classification below. ClassificationAs per the latitude from the equator line. There are 4 major climate zones: The Tropical Zone from 0°–23.5°(between the tropics) In the regions between the equator and the tropics (equatorial region), the solar radiation reaches the ground nearly vertically at noontime during almost the entire year. Thereby, it is very warm in these regions. Through high temperatures, more water evaporates and the air is often moist. The resulting frequent and dense cloud reduces the effect of solar radiation on ground temperature. Subtropics from 23.5°–40° The subtropics receive the highest radiation in summer, since the Sun's angle at noon is almost vertical to the Earth, whilst the cloud cover is relatively thin. These regions receive less moisture (see trade winds), what increases the effect of radiation. Therefore, most of the deserts in the world are situated in this zone. In winter, the radiation in these regions decreases significantly, and it can temporarily be very cool and moist. Temperate Zone from 40°–60° In the temperate zone, the solar radiation arrives with a smaller angle, and the average temperatures here are much cooler than in the subtropics. The seasons and day length differ significantly in the course of a year. The climate is characterised by less frequent extremes, a more regular distribution of the Precipitation over the year and a longer vegetation period - therefore the name "temperate". Cold Zone from 60°–90° The polar areas between 60° latitude and the poles receive less heat through solar radiation, since the Sun has a very flat angle toward the ground. Because of the changes of the Earth axis angle to the Sun, the daylength varies most in this zone. In the summer, polar days occur. Vegetation is only possible during a few months per year and even then is often sparse. The conditions for life in these regions are very hard. The characteristics of the climate zones change with great altitude differences within a small area, like in mountain areas, since temperatures decrease rapidly with altitude, changing the climate compared to valleys..

Example –the Cold Zone. Cold zone Polar and sub polar zone Characteristics Area 60° to 90° North and South latitude Sun path 53° above the horizon ( polar day ) to under the horizon (polar night) Average temperature -47 to 0°C Minimal temperature -89°C (Antarctica) Maximal temperature +25°C (Tundra) Radiation Negative Daylength 0 to 24 hours (polar night respectively polar day) Precipitation Variable, mostly in the form of snow Climate Ice climate (average temperature of the warmest month below 0°C), and tundra climate (average temperature of the warmest month between 0 und 10°C) Vegetation Polar area: scarce Tundra: moss, lichens, grass, boreal forest with conifer wood Properties Hostile to life, polar lights.

The Polar Region. The polar regions are the coldest regions on Earth, situated between the poles and the respective polar circles. They are also called "eternal ice". The northern polar circle includes the Arctic, which includes the northern Polar sea. The southern polar circle includes the Antarctic region, mainly consisting of the Antarctica continent. The special attributes of the polar regions are the climate with much Snow and ice , as well as the polar day with the midnight Sun, which lasts almost half a year at the poles, the polar night, but also the polar lights. Some areas in the polar circle have substantially warmer climate; in Norway, the west coast is warmed by the Gulf Stream and has a yearly average temperature of 4-6°C which is 5-15°C higher than that of comparable places on 60 to 65°N latitude in other parts of the polar region. Places Trondheim, Norway (63.42°N / 10.42°E, 77 m asl ) Located in Western Norway, close to the North Sea. Murmansk, Russia (68.97°N / 33.08°E, 29 m asl ) Located in northern Russia, close to the Arctic Sea. Yakutsk, Siberia (62.03°N / 129.73°E, 126 m asl ) Located in continental Siberia, in the polar permafrost area..

Climate is not static. An ice age causes enormous changes to the Earth’s surface. Glaciers reshape the landscape by picking up rocks and soil and eroding hills during their unstoppable push, their sheer weight depressing the Earth’s crust. As temperatures drop in areas adjacent to these ice cliffs, cold-weather plant life is driven to southern latitudes. Meanwhile, the dramatic drop in sea levels enables rivers to carve out deeper valleys and produce enormous inland lakes, with previously submerged land bridges appearing between continents. Upon retreating during warmer periods, the glaciers leave behind scattered ridges of sediment and fill basins with melted water to create new lakes. Scientists have recorded five significant ice ages throughout the Earth’s history: the Huronian (2.4-2.1 billion years ago), Cryogen an (850-635 million years ago), Andean-Saharan (460-430 mya ), Karoo (360-260 mya ) and Quaternary (2.6 mya -present). Approximately a dozen major glaciations have occurred over the past 1 million years, the largest of which peaked 650,000 years ago and lasted for 50,000 years. The most recent glaciation period, often known simply as the “Ice Age,” reached peak conditions some 18,000 years ago before giving way to the interglacial Holocene epoch 11,700 years ago. At the height of the recent glaciations, the ice grew to more than 12,000 feet thick as sheets spread across Canada, Scandinavia, Russia and South America. Corresponding sea levels plunged more than 400 feet, while global temperatures dipped around 10 degrees Fahrenheit on average and up to 40 degrees in some areas. In North America, the region of the Gulf Coast states ..

Climate change and the Arctic. The Arctic Ocean could experience ice free summers within the next 20 years, much earlier than previously predicted , according to James Screen, an associate professor at the University of Exeter in the UK. The climate change model used in the new study predicts an ice free Arctic summer sometime between 2030 and 2050, if green house gases continue to rise..

So climate is changing even now. But faster, that is the problem.

The melting Ice. Every where on earth, ice is melting faster than it was, so there is less ice now. The famed snows of Kilimanjaro have melted more than 80 percent since 1912. Glaciers in the Garhwal Himalaya in India are retreating so fast that researchers believe that most central and eastern Himalayan glaciers could virtually disappear by 2035. Arctic sea ice has thinned significantly over the past half century, and its extent has declined by about 10 percent in the past 30 years. NASA's repeated laser altimeter readings show the edges of Greenland's ice sheet shrinking. Spring freshwater ice breakup in the Northern Hemisphere now occurs nine days earlier than it did 150 years ago, and autumn freeze-up ten days later. Thawing permafrost has caused the ground to subside more than 15 feet (4.6 meters) in parts of Alaska. From the Arctic to Peru, from Switzerland to the equatorial glaciers of Man Jaya in Indonesia, massive ice fields, monstrous glaciers, and sea ice are disappearing, fast..

The ground Effect of Global Warming. More heat waves More floods Submerging of coastal areas. Urban flooding Impact on agriculture Impact on Warm cloth industry and other industries. Impact on personal incomes due to natural disasters..

How the world community is reacting. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference , COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in Palris , France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the conference of Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties (CMP) to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol The conference negotiated the Paris Agreement, a global agreement on the reduction of Climate change, the text of which represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties attending it. The agreement will enter into force when joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions. On 22 April 2016 (Earth Day), 174 countries signed the agreement in New York, and began adopting it within their own legal systems (through ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession). According to the organizing committee at the outset of the talks, the expected key result was an agreement to set a goal of limiting global warming to "well below 2 °C“ Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The agreement calls for zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to be reached during the second half of the 21st century. In the adopted version of the Paris Agreement, the parties will also "pursue efforts to" limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. The 1.5 °C goal will require zero emissions sometime between 2030 and 2050, according to some scientists..

The World Reaction. Prior to the conference, 146 national climate panels publicly presented draft national climate contributions (called Intended Nationally determined Contributions , INDCs). These suggested commitments were estimated to limit global warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. For example, the EU suggested INDC is a commitment to a 40 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. [ The agreement establishes a "global stocktake " which revisits the national goals to "update and enhance" them every five years beginning 2023 . ] However , no detailed timetable or country-specific goals for emissions were incorporated into the Paris Agreement – as opposed to the previous Kyoto Protocol..

The world Reaction. A number of meetings took place in preparation for COP21, including the Bonn Climate Change Conference, 19 to 23 October 2015, which produced a draft agreement. The overarching goal of the Convention is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase. Since COP 17 this increase is set at 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels. However, It is felt that the current pledges under the second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol are clearly not enough to guarantee that the temperature will stay below 2 °C and there is an ever increasing gap between the action of countries and what the science tells us.".

The stake Holders. Whole world community We the Indian People Governments Private Industries and Enterprises Agriculturists Many others.

Climate change and Disasters. Changing patters of rains Changing patterns of hot and cold days Rise in sea levels Heating of sea water Increasing average temperatures. All these will change the shape of extreme events..

Green House Gases, one common enemy. Reduction of Green house gases at every level International Community , National Governments, Individual to act. Individual and Organized activities have to under go change..

Reduction of Green House gases. Some specific action points. From fossil fuel to Renewable. To clean energy like Nuclear energy From Individual transport of Mass transport From petrol and diesel cars to Electric cars..

More efficiency and less wastage. Green buildings Better use of energy Less wastage of everything Recycling to reduce over exploitation of Natural resources. Life Style Change Environment Education.

Water Water. Less wastage of water Protection of Water Bodies Clean rivers Clean oceans Clean water bodies Water recycling.

The IMD Report. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on January 16 declared that 2018 was the sixth- warmest year in the last 117 years or since 1901, when recording started. Pointing towards changing weather and climate parameters, it also noted that the last monsoon rainfall was the sixth-lowest since 1901. “The 2018 annual mean land surface air temperature for the country was +0.41°C above the 1981-2010 average, thus making 2018 the sixth-warmest year on record since 1901,” said a release from IMD. That India is witnessing consistent warmer seasons is clear from the IMD’s analysis that pointed out that 11 out of 15 warmest years were in the last 15 years (2002-2018). The last year was also the consecutive third-warmest year after 2016 and 2017. “The past decade (2001-2010/2009-2018) was also the warmest on record, with anomalies of 0.23°C/0.37°C. The annual mean temperature during 1901-2018 showed an increasing trend of 0.6°C/100 years, with a significant increasing trend in maximum temperature (1.0°C/100 years), and relatively lower increasing trend (0.2°C/100 years) in minimum temperature,” said IMD. Climate change impacts are likely to lower the living standards of nearly half of India’s population, says a new World Bank report. According to the report titled South Asia ,s Hotspots Impact of Temperature and Precipitation.’, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall pattern could cost India 2.8 per cent of its GDP. It says that almost half of South Asia, including India, lives in vulnerable areas and will suffer from declining living standards. Approximately 60 crore Indians live in areas where changes in average temperature and precipitation will negatively impact living standards. These areas, called hotspots, were identified using spatial granular climate and household data analysis. The analysis was done for two scenarios—one indicating a pathway where climate change mitigating actions were taken and the other where current trends of carbon emissions continued. “We have attempted to identify how climate change will affect household consumption, and that is the basis of the estimation and hotspot mapping. The granular data is from the household level, which is aggregated to give larger level analyses at block, district, state and country levels," Muthukumara Mani, lead economist, World Bank South Asia region told Down To Earth . A warming trend is now witnessed in all seasons including the winter (January-February). “The country averaged season mean temperatures during all the four seasons, with the winter season (January-February, +0.59°C) being the 5th warmest since 1901 and the pre-monsoon season (March-May, with an anomaly of +0.55°C above average) being the 7th warmest ever since 1901,” said IMD. Similarly, there is a declining trend for the monsoon as well. “The 2018 Northeast monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over the country as a whole was substantially below normal (56 per cent of LPA, 1951-2000 average). This was 6th lowest since 1901,” reported the IMD release..

Action Points for Governments in India. Implementation of Environment protection laws. Industry and Government authorities to come to mutual understanding. More scrutiny of urban development bodies. Urban development plans to be inclusive of future challenges..

Future challenges example –Urban Flooding. Water containment capacities of the cities to be increased. Restoration of Old water bodies and restoration of drainage. Building of additional , temporary water holding systems..

Future ChallengesRural Flooding. Control and reduce human settlement in flood zones. Resettle vulnerable human population. Coping with floods, lessons from the North East India..

Future Challenge –Transport sector. Mass , short distance travel to be revamped. Short distance, efficient railways. Efficient bus services within the city. Last mile connectivity. Building the Charging infrastructure for E Vehicles..

Each one of us is a stake holder.. THANKS K K SINHA Ex Relief Commissioner UP.